The Big Think

September 12, 2007

Live Long and Prosper

Filed under: Science — jasony @ 3:33 pm

Americas life expectancy increases to record high.

This is pretty much in keeping with what the actuarial escape velocity people claim will happen. They say that we’re on the beginning part of the bell curve and that they expect it to take off somewhere in the next 30 years or so (some say 10 years, some say as much as 50). At that point we’ll be improving life expectancy by more than 1 year per year, therefore our expected average max age will go up faster than the calendar years go by.

Critics say that this will never happen, but the Kurzweilian view is that it’s happening now, but we’re just on the gentle initial slope of the curve- hardly noticeable because the slope is so gentle. We won’t see disruptive changes until the last few years. The critics will be saying “sure, life expectancy has gone up, but it’s still only a few days per year increase”, then “sure, but it’s only a few weeks/year”, then suddenly it’s month/year and years/year and we’re over the hump.

I don’t believe that we’ll reach the holy grail of “infinite expected lifespan” in the next 100 years (too many unknowns to be realistic, I think), but I do think that it’s very possible, and even likely, that I’ll get my wish and get to see the year 2100.

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